Will Trump bury rivals tonight? Iowa governor & past Caucus winners Huckabee, Santorum talk to ALL ISRAEL NEWS
Also, exclusive interviews with national, Iowa Evangelical leaders, GOP operatives
JERUSALEM, ISRAEL – The 2024 presidential campaign officially begins tonight at 7 p.m. central time.
Iowans will gather in schools, churches, town halls, and community centers to become the first voters in the country. But how many people will really show up? This is expected to be the coldest night in the history of the caucuses.
Will former President Donald J. Trump bury his rivals tonight in a political avalanche, as all the recent statewide polls suggest?
Will former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley – with the millions she has spent on TV ads in the Hawkeye state – truly deliver a strong second finish, as her aides insist?
Or will Florida Governor Ron DeSantis defy all expectations, and surprise everyone by surging past Haley? Could DeSantis even pull off a narrow victory over Trump – shocking everyone – as his campaign suggests, arguing that his supporters are more passionate and committed to showing up tonight than his rivals?
The final Des Moines Register poll, released on Sunday, puts Trump at 48%, Haley at 21%, DeSantis at only 16%, and the rest of the pack far behind in single digits.
“The DMR poll shows the Haley momentum continuing to grow,” a Team Haley spokeswoman told ALL ISRAEL NEWS this morning. “But we take nothing for granted. Despite the cold weather, on Monday, Iowans will have the first chance in the nation to voice their desire for a new generation of conservative leadership with Nikki Haley, instead of more of the same with Donald Trump.”
A poll released this morning by Emerson College places Trump even further out front with 55% support, putting him a whopping 34% ahead of his closest competitor.
WHAT ARE KEY EVANGELICAL LEADERS AND GOP OPERATIVES SEEING ON THE GROUND IN IOWA – BESIDES SNOW?
ALL ISRAEL NEWS is a non-profit, and thus a non-partisan, news site.
We don’t endorse candidates.
But we are tracking the U.S. presidential elections rather closely given that the next President of the United States will have an enormous impact on the future of U.S.-Israel relations, as well as U.S. policy towards the Iranian regime, the threat of radical Islamism in the region, and the expansion of the Abraham Accords.
That’s why I’ve been interviewing major candidates on THE ROSENBERG REPORT on TBN and here on ALL ISRAEL NEWS.
Last week, for example, I did an exclusive interview with DeSantis (see here and here).
Last September, I interviewed Vivek Ramaswamy (see here and here).
We’ve also requested interviews with former President Trump and Gov. Haley and hope to secure those soon.
That’s also why I’ve been reaching out to past winners of the Iowa Caucus, national Evangelical leaders, and Iowa-based Evangelicals and GOP operatives.
I’ve been trying to get a sense of what they’re really seeing on the ground – besides snow and ice – and what they’re expecting to happen tonight.
I’m happy to say I’ve learned a lot and am more intrigued than ever.
WHAT IS 2008 IOWA WINNER MIKE HUCKABEE SAYING?
In 2008, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee shocked the nation by winning the Iowa Caucus on the Republican side with 34.4% of the vote, defeating both Sen. John McCain (who only got 13%), and former Gov. Mitt Romney (who got 25.2%, both heavyweights in the race, along with a slew of other contenders.
Huckabee, who became a founding member of the ALL ISRAEL NEWS Advisory Board when we launched in September 2020, won by galvanizing and unifying most of the state’s Evangelical voters.
Today, Huckabee is a passionate Trump backer.
“I think Trump has support for what he got done,” the former governor told me in an interview.
“Evangelicals aren’t naïve and think he’s ‘one of us,’” Huckabee conceded.
“But we don’t hire a plumber or electrician because he goes to church with us,” he added. “We hire someone because he has the skills to do the job.”
“The polls still show Trump far ahead,” he said, saying that he expects Trump to win handily tonight.
But Huckabee made a point of telling me that “a surprising number of Haley voters say they’d vote for Biden if Nikki isn't the nominee, indicating some of her support comes from not-so-committed GOP voters.”
WHAT IS IOWA GOVERNOR KIM REYNOLDS SAYING?
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds is not only a Republican but a devout Evangelical Christian, and very pro-Israel.
Last year, she signed a heartbeat bill, banning abortion after six weeks when most doctors say a fetus can feel pain.
She is popular in her state, and especially with Evangelicals, who represented 62% of GOP caucus voters in 2016.
Reynolds endorsed DeSantis in November, after being sharply criticized for months by Trump, who says she is disloyal for not backing him.
I texted with the governor this afternoon to get her take on what's happening in her state.
"The most interesting part of the Des Moines Register poll was the percentage of those polled likely to show up to caucus," Reynolds told me.
"They found that 62% of DeSantis supporters said they will definitely caucus, while only 56% said the same for Trump, and only 51% for Haley."
"In frigid Iowa weather, it's going to be turnout that makes all the difference," she said.
I also asked her about the attacks Trump has leveled against her, up to and including this weekend.
"I haven't been focused on Donald Trump – which is precisely why he has attacked me," Reynolds said. "I'm focused on my endorsement for Ron DeSantis, the only conservative in the race with a record that backs it up."
"Ron DeSantis is the most effective leader I have seen in a long time," Reynolds insisted.
WHAT IS 2012 IOWA WINNER RICK SANTORUM SAYING?
In 2012, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum shocked the nation by winning the Iowa Caucus on the GOP side.
For almost the entire campaign up until that point, Santorum had been at the back of the pack, polling less than 5%, and really at only 1% or 2% for much of 2011.
But in the final days before the vote, Evangelical leaders in the state – led by Bob Vander Plaats, president of a Christian non-profit organization, The Family Leader, endorsed Santorum and activated a massive grassroots campaign on his behalf.
It worked, helping Santorum edge out dominant front-runner Mitt Romney when no one thought it was possible.
Santorum secured 24.56% of the vote to Romney’s 24.53%.
It was an incredibly volatile cycle in which former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Texas Governor Rick Perry, and former Rep. Michele Bachmann had all been front-runners or strong contenders against Romney on and off.
So, almost no one saw Santorum’s sudden and meteoric rise at the last minute.
In this cycle, Santorum – who also serves on the ALL ISRAEL NEWS Advisory Board – has not endorsed anyone.
“This race has to be viewed more like a race against an incumbent president than an open seat primary,” Santorum told me earlier today.
“Trump is talking about an historic win in Iowa,” he said. “That is why it is important for Trump to do extremely well and dispatch his opponents quickly.”
If Trump doesn’t blow away Haley and DeSantis and win by 30 or more points, Santorum said, Trump would be showing an “historic weakness” and “allusions of Carter in ‘80 or Bush in ‘92 would become relevant.”
“Underperforming in Iowa, no matter the reason, will result in a likely even closer race in New Hampshire,” Santorum noted, where Nikki Haley is steadily gaining ground.
“Trump is almost certain to survive underperforming in both of these early states,” but the former senator said it would “expose the weakness of such an incumbent in the general election particularly if the Democrats dispose of Biden at the convention.”
“As for the Des Moines Register poll, everything I hear is that Haley’s support is paper thin,” Santorum told me.
“However, her vote is concentrated in the urban and suburban areas which are less affected by the harsh weather due to shorter drives and better road conditions.”
“The key stat with this weather is DeSantis’ ground game.”
DeSantis may be in third in the latest polls, he said, but polls also show that the Florida governor has the highest number of Iowans saying they are “certain to attend” the Caucus tonight, compared to Trump and Haley voters.
That’s why Santorum said he expects DeSantis to “overperform” the final polls and for Haley to “underperform,” causing DeSantis to finish second.
“The big question is Trump turnout,” Santorum explained.
Trump’s voters appear to be “more rural” and include more “first-time attendees” than the others, he said, “both of which should underperform in this weather.”
If Trump’s final numbers “are closer to 40% than 50%,” Santorum said, then “the narrative about his weakness as a candidate will be exacerbated.”
WHAT IS IOWA’S LEADING EVANGELICAL BOB VANDER PLAATS SAYING?
As I noted above, Bob Vander Plaats is the most prominent and politically savvy Evangelical leader in Iowa.
As president of The Family Leader, he is also a member of the ALL ISRAEL NEWS Advisory Board.
In addition to being highly connected and influential with grassroots Evangelicals – and having backed every Caucus winner since 2008, Huckabee, Santorum, and Senator Ted Cruz – Vander Plaats is also very close to Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds.
Both have endorsed DeSantis during this cycle and thrown all the weight of their grassroots operations behind him.
“Tonight will be the coldest and iciest in the history of the Iowa Caucuses,” Vander Plaats told me this morning.
“One storyline coming out of tonight will be turnout,” he said. “If Governor DeSantis’ organization performs and produces, he will shock the pundits with a strong second or a possible victory.”
“Friends and acquaintances of DeSantis are coming in from all across the country” to help campaign for him and to help the governor get out the vote tonight.
“His crowds have been very impressive,” Vander Plaats added, with packed, standing-room-only venues all week, despite the massive snowfall and arctic temperatures.
That said, “if Trump’s call to his MAGA supporters is listened to, he could sweep to a dominant victory.”
“My hunch is there will be two tickets punched tonight — President Trump and Governor DeSantis,” he said, meaning he expects DeSantis to overperform his low poll numbers and leave Iowa with a head of steam.
WHAT IS IOWA EVANGELICAL BROADCASTER STEVE DEACE SAYING?
Steve Deace is the most prominent Evangelical broadcaster in Iowa, with a daily TV show on Glenn Beck’s network, The Blaze.
Deace has endorsed DeSantis and thrown all his political weight behind him.
“DeSantis has built the best organization in the state I've ever seen, and I was on the frontlines of helping build the organization Ted Cruz built that set the all-time caucus turnout record,” he told me this morning.
“I think he will out-perform expectations tonight – and he should. He's the best candidate I've ever had the chance to vote for.”
“His record speaks for itself,” Deace said. “He’s the most successful Republican politician of my lifetime."
“I won't make any outcome predictions except for one, because this is the most peculiar cycle I've ever seen. And I've been involved in every one of them since 1996."
“First, the lawfare against the former president [91 federal indictments] chloroformed the campaign energy for 6-8 months,” he insisted. “During that time, it was like a primary wasn't even happening, and Caucus energy on the ground was nil.”
“But,” he conceded, Trump’s ground game and the energy of his supporters “has picked up considerably since November.”
“Second, this is perhaps the worst winter weather of my life. There are wind chill warnings begging people to stay home; on top of all the snow and ice, we still have back-to-back winter storms. So that is going to make turnout volatile.”
“If I had to make one prediction, I think Nikki Haley will finish closer to Vivek Ramaswamy than Ron DeSantis,” meaning under 10%," he said.
“That is reflected in the Des Moines Register poll, which always gets so much credit but is also always wrong. While it claims Haley is going to finish second on the top line, it also says in the cross-tabs that she has the least energy and most of her supporters prefer Biden.”
“Come on, man. We're not sure how many Republicans are gonna show up. So, do you really think a bunch of lefties are gonna brave this weather, and then hang out for an hour or more with Republicans, just to vote for her? Of course not.”
WHAT IS NATIONAL EVANGELICAL LEADER TONY PERKINS SAYING
As president of the Family Research Council in Washington, D.C., Tony Perkins is one of the most prominent and influential Evangelical leaders in the United States.
He has not endorsed a presidential candidate in this cycle.
But he believes Trump is likely to emerge as the nominee.
“I have not made an endorsement,” Perkins told me this morning.
“I do think the Des Moines Register poll is accurate,” he said, adding that the numbers are consistent with what he is seeing “as I interact with Christian voters around the country.”
“There is no question, former President Trump has some detractors,” he said.
“But his candidacy is being fueled by two potent accelerants: His unparalleled policy record” of strong pro-life, pro-family, and pro-Israel legislation and executive orders, “along with the Left’s – and the Legacy media’s – disdain for him.”
“Those two realities will secure the nomination for him.”
WHAT’S IOWA GOP OPERATIVE ROBERT HAUS SAYING?
Robert “Bob” Haus is a long-time GOP operative based in Des Moines.
He worked on the Steve Forbes presidential campaign in 2000, which came in second to then-Gov. George W. Bush in the Iowa Caucus.
In 2012, Haus worked for Texas Governor Rick Perry.
In other cycles, he worked for Sen. Bob Dole, Sen. Phil Gramm, and Sen. Fred Thompson.
“The 2024 race will be a true test of organizational strength and commitment to a caucus goer’s chosen candidate,” Haus told me this morning.
“With subzero temperatures and double-digit negative wind chill, if you Caucus tonight, you’re committed.”
“There will be two races,” Haus argued. “One is testing former President Trump’s strength and expectations.”
There’s a second race, though, he said, “between Governor DeSantis and Ambassador Haley for second place.”
“The upside for the former president is that by most measures, his supporters are committed.”
“I’d say many of Trump’s supporters are very committed and would walk through hell in a gasoline suit for him.”
“He’s also run a very good campaign, the most focused and aggressive I’ve ever seen run from the Trump organization.”
Haus added that “DeSantis and Haley have also run aggressive campaigns, but they’ve largely gone after each other, with only glancing blows at the former president.”
“Commitment to a candidate choice is higher among DeSantis voters than Haley voters,” Haus noted, after assessing the recent polls. “So, the final tally tonight may not reflect the final Iowa poll” which put Haley in second place.
“But,” Haus was quick to add, “Team Haley has recent momentum and is using her rising second place position as a clarion call for action and turnout.”
“Team DeSantis is attacking the poll and fighting to drive their supporters to the caucuses. Like any race, you’d much rather be getting hot at the end than hoping to hang on.”
What’s the bottom line? I asked the Iowa GOP veteran.
“The bottom line is it will be a pitched battle tonight and the start of the process for Republicans,” Haus told me.
“It will further clear the field and offer a sharper focus going forward.”
Joel C. Rosenberg is the editor-in-chief of ALL ISRAEL NEWS and ALL ARAB NEWS and the President and CEO of Near East Media. A New York Times best-selling author, Middle East analyst, and Evangelical leader, he lives in Jerusalem with his wife and sons.
