HISTORIC BUT HIGHLY CONTROVERSIAL HOSTAGE DEAL - Is Netanyahu giving up too much to get the hostages back?
Here’s my take
JERUSALEM, ISRAEL — We are currently in the midst of one of the most dramatic news cycles in modern Israeli history.
Last night, after 467 days of hell for almost 100 Israeli hostages, we learned that a deal has been finally struck to get all the hostages out of Gaza.
But we also learned that Israel will pay a very steep and painful price — releasing hardened Palestinian terrorists in order to secure the release of our people.
Today, at 11am local time, the Security Cabinet will formally vote to accept the deal.
On Sunday at 12:15pm local time, the deal — including a six week ceasefire in Gaza — will commence.
Already, social media is blowing up with people praising the deal and people bitterly condemning it.
Opponents argue Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given up too much to get our 97 Israeli and American citizens back.
But for months polls have shown that more than 70% of Israelis wanted a comprehensive deal to “bring them all home now,” even if the concessions were costly.
So, I suspect the vast majority of Israelis are going to be immensely relieved and grateful for this deal, especially as we begin to see tearful reunions between hostages and their families and friends.
HOW DO I SEE THIS DEAL?
Let me be clear: I wish this deal was vastly different and made far fewer concessions to bloodthirsty lunatics — but I still believe it was the right thing to do.
Why?
Because the Israeli government has a binding social contract not to let its citizens be dragged out of their beds at gunpoint and abandoned to nonstop torture.
We have a moral responsibility to get all of our people out as fast as possible while simultaneously destroying the terror army who set this disaster into motion in the first place.
That’s what Netanyahu has done and he deserves credit for it.
HOW THE NEWS BROKE
It's interesting that the deal was announced initially not by President Joe Biden but by President-elect Donald Trump.
That's how we first learned that a deal was finalized, because Trump put out a statement on Truth Social, his social media platform.
Soon thereafter, Israeli officials began speaking anonymously that, yes, a deal seemed to be done.
A senior Hamas spokesman then put out a statement saying that, yes, the deal was finalized.
Then President Biden made live comments at the White House laying out some of the broad strokes of the deal.
FIRST HOSTAGES TO BE RELEASED ON SUNDAY
The good news is that the first of the hostages will be released, Lord willing, on Sunday.
There are three stages to the deal.
In stage one, 33 Israeli and American hostages will be released.
These include babies, women, the wounded, and men over 50.
The next phase would be done once more negotiations take place.
A ceasefire in Gaza will begin at 12:15 p.m. local time on Sunday.
Israel will stop fighting and pull back but not completely out of Gaza.
More humanitarian aid will surge in.
In stage two, there will more negotiations for the next set of hostages, mostly Israeli soldiers, to be released.
In the last stage, after more details are negotiated, the bodies of Israeli and foreign hostages who have died in captivity would be turned over.
So, that's what Israel is getting.
WHAT IS THE PRICE ISRAEL MUST PAY?
What exactly is Israel giving?
This is the controversial part.
Every Israeli wants to get the hostages out.
The biggest debate internally was, over two things.
First, how many Palestinian terrorist prisoners are we going to have to release to get these hostages back?
Second, does Israel have to effectively surrender in Gaza — quit fighting, leave, and never return?
Don't we need to keep fighting to fully defeat Hamas?
We have achieved much, to be sure.
We have assassinated Hamas’ top leader, Ismail Haniya.
We assassinated the chief strategist of the October 7 invasion and massacre, Yahya Sinwar.
We've also assassinated the top military commander of Hamas in Gaza, Mohammad Deif.
What’s more, about 80% to 85% of the Hamas terror army has been killed or captured or severely wounded in Gaza.
So, Israel has made huge, huge, military gains over the last six months or so.
We looked bogged down last summer, but there have been tremendous successes and tremendous progress over the last six months.
That's why Prime Minister Netanyahu supports this deal.
He believes it’s the right deal at the right time.
HUGE MILITARY GAINS IN GAZA
Netanyahu had been fiercely against the deal that President Biden had laid out in May of last year because he saw it as surrendering to Hamas, because we had not yet made those huge gains.
In May of last year, the IDF had not yet invaded the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip, Rafah.
Several battalions of Hamas terrorists were still living there, fighting from there, firing rockets at us, and holding hostages there.
But even though Biden told us not to, Netanyahu decided to invade Rafah and the IDF accomplished a great deal, including finding and killing Yahya Sinwar.
That said, the price of this current deal is steep and painful.
For every live hostage released in the first stage, 30 Palestinian prisoners will also be sent free.
Some of these are hardened terrorist murderers.
For every female Israeli soldier that's going to be released, Israel will release 50 Palestinian prisoners, again, mostly terrorists, mostly murderers.
Where are those prisoners going to be released to?
Israel says it will not release them inside the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank because that would destabilize the West Bank.
There are three other options — Gaza, Qatar, or Turkey — or possibly all three.
OVERWHELMING ISRAELI CONSENSUS
Look, I get it that there are many who say Israel shouldn't be even negotiating at all.
There is deep controversy and deep pain.
But the truth is that the Israeli people have overwhelmingly made our decision.
Again, polls show that between 70 and 75% of Israelis say it's time to get all of our hostages back, even if we have to make deep concessions, even if we had to end the war.
This is not because Israelis want to leave Hamas even partly intact.
But we accepted the bitter truth that we will have to fight Hamas for a long, long time.
Fine.
We’ll do what we have to do.
But we don't have any more time to get these hostages back.
They are suffering unconscionably and it’s time to get them all home now.
WHO SHOULD GET THE CREDIT?
Who deserves the credit for this deal?
Yes, President Biden and his team have worked very hard to get a deal. And they certainly deserve credit for the November 2023 deal that released 105 hostages.
But we haven't seen a deal since.
And many people have speculated that the weakness of President Biden physically, mentally, and politically was causing Hamas to feel emboldened.
I believe President-elect Trump and his team deserve the lion’s share of credit.
After 15 months, Biden simply couldn’t get the deal done.
But with Trump’s threats and ultimatums, he made this happen.
That said, we are actually witnessing a rare and encouraging moment of bipartisanship.
The Biden team and the Trump team have been working very closely together to bring these negotiations to fruition.
WE MUST NOT STOP PRAYING
Evangelicals, please don't stop praying.
As our Lord Jesus said in Matthew chapter five, “blessed are the peacemakers.”
Let us keep praying for peace.
And recovery.
And security.
Indeed, Israelis value security even more than peace because they don't believe there is peace without security.
So, please pray for Israelis, pray for these hostages, pray for their families, and pray for the Palestinians as well.
This saga is not yet over.
There will be hard days ahead.
But we are at an historic inflection point and if we really get all of our hostage home, we should be grateful.
Joel C. Rosenberg is the editor-in-chief of ALL ISRAEL NEWS and ALL ARAB NEWS and the President and CEO of Near East Media. A New York Times best-selling author, Middle East analyst, and Evangelical leader, he lives in Jerusalem with his wife and sons.