As Lebanon ceasefire appears close, US envoy Hochstein set to arrive in Beirut on Tuesday

U.S. special envoy for the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, will travel to Beirut on Tuesday morning, Reuters reported, citing Lebanese sources. 

Reuters said the Lebanese government is expected to give its response to the U.S. ceasefire proposal at that time. According to Lebanese media reports, government officials have taken a "positive view" toward the latest proposal but have not yet agreed to it.

However, there was no indication of whether Hezbollah would agree to the terms.

Hochstein will reportedly stop in Israel as well, where he is expected to gauge Israel's willingness to accept the U.S. proposal. With a string of successes, Israel is not likely to agree to any proposal that would endanger its war goal of returning the Israeli residents in the north to their homes after more than a year since they were evacuated.

On Monday morning, opposition member Benny Gantz wrote on 𝕏: “A condition for any agreement with Lebanon – full Israeli freedom of action against any violation.” 

In a video posted to Telegram, he said that Israel must have the same freedom of operation in southern Lebanon as it has in Area A of the Palestinian Territories in Judea and Samaria as part of a ceasefire deal.

Over the weekend, the New York Times reported that Iran indicated to the Hezbollah terror group that it supports ending the current conflict in Lebanon. 

The NYT said that an Iranian official, Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, met with Lebanese officials on Friday. During the meeting, he conveyed a message to Hezbollah, stating that Khamenei supports ending the war with Israel.

Larijani allegedly assured Hezbollah of continued Iranian financial and military support, along with assistance in rebuilding its forces and equipment.

Iran International, an opposition-affiliated news site, confirmed that Larijani met with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Hezbollah-aligned Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to discuss a ceasefire.

According to the Lebanese news site ad-Diyar, the proposal seen by the Lebanese side does not indicate freedom of movement for the IDF in southern Lebanon.

A source familiar with the proposal called Hochstein's visit "pivotal" and said the efforts would either bring a truce within days, "or the proposal currently placed on the table will fall, and we will be in the midst of a major escalation by Israel and Hezbollah that will continue at least until mid-January."

Israel has not let up the intensity of its strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure and fighters in the past few days, despite U.S. efforts to broker an end to the conflict. 

Yesterday, Israel took out Hezbollah’s top spokesman, Muhammad Afif, in an unusual strike in central Beirut without advanced warning. 

For several weeks now, IDF Arabic Spokesman Lt. Colonel Avichay Adraee has issued warnings ahead of Israeli airstrikes, often a couple of hours before the strikes, with specific buildings to be targeted indicated on maps. 

Sunday’s elimination of Afif came without any advanced warning and took place in central Beirut, rather than the Hezbollah-dominated Dahiyeh suburb, where most of the IDF’s strikes in the capital have been concentrated.

Over the weekend, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi conducted an assessment of the ground campaign inside Lebanon, in a show of Israel’s advances so far. 

Chief of the General Staff LTG. Herzi Halevi toured southern Lebanon this week with MG. Ori Gordin and BG Shai Klapper and other commanders.
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The sight of Halevi on Hezbollah ground in southern Lebanon must be an eye sore for the group. pic.twitter.com/SR0UKbSzCZ

— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) November 16, 2024