US Middle East expert predicts Israel will face ongoing wars despite possibly 'good ceasefires'

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and his newly appointed Middle East Advisor Massad Boulos have asserted that the ongoing wars between Israel and the Iranian-led axis are about to end.

However, Eric Mandel, a U.S. expert on the Middle East and founder of the Middle East Political Information Network (MEPIN), which provides research analysis to Members of Congress and think tanks, disagrees with this assessment. He argues that "these wars will not be over" for the foreseeable future.

“We will hopefully have good ceasefires, and that's the best you can expect at this point in time,” Mandel said during a recent interview with Israeli ILTV News. 

While Hamas has been largely defeated as an organized military force, Mandel believes that the main problem in the Gaza Strip is the lack of a political “day after” vision for the coastal enclave. 

“Netanyahu does not want any Palestinian Authority involvement,” Mandel said, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“That is a big problem. I am not saying that the PA should be there, but you need to have something there. And if Hamas is not totally destroyed as a military and governing entity, no other nation would want to put their soldiers in harm’s way – not the Emiratis, Germans, or Saudis,” he added.

“I think they really need to get to some kind of ‘day after’ plan in Gaza,” Mandel concluded. 

Turning to the complex hostage-release negotiation challenge, Mandel believes that it will be more difficult to reach an agreement if Hamas remains in power in Gaza.

While Trump is expected to largely support pro-Israel policies, Mandel cautioned that the president-elect might pressure Israel to refrain from launching future military operations in Gaza if they threaten his broader goal of achieving diplomatic breakthroughs between Israel and the wider Arab world. 

The Biden administration has called for the eventual return of a “reformed” Palestinian Authority (PA) to the Gaza Strip. 

However, Netanyahu has vowed that “Gaza will be neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan.” 

“After the great sacrifice of our civilians and our soldiers, I will not allow the entry into Gaza of those who educate for terrorism, support terrorism and finance terrorism,” Netanyahu added, referring to the PA’s controversial “pay for slay” policy that offers financial rewards to terrorists who murder Israelis and Jews. 

In March, Netanyahu reportedly articulated opposition to a plan to train PA-affiliated Fatah forces in Jordan for their eventual takeover in a post-Hamas and post-war Gaza. 

Netanyahu has also faced domestic criticism for his unwillingness to express a clear vision for Gaza after the war, which pundits believe is linked to his far-right coalition partners, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. who both oppose the two-state solution and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza. 

However, The New York Times reported earlier this year that Netanyahu’s administration has been examining a “utopian” plan to eventually transform Hamas-run Gaza into a flourishing Singapore on the Mediterranean Sea. 

"Netanyahu's plan [is] to turn Gaza into a kind of Singapore," the Israeli news outlet Ynet reported in March.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett previously spoke about a similar vision for Gaza, which would require significant international backing from the United States, Europe and moderate Arab states.