Israel reportedly warned Syria to avoid involvement in Gaza war or face regime change

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Syria has traditionally been one of Israel’s main enemies in the Middle East since the reestablishment of the Jewish state in 1948. However, the Assad regime has kept a very low profile throughout the ongoing war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization.

A new report by AFP and The Times of Israel revealed that Syria’s current neutrality is no coincidence. An unnamed Western diplomat recently revealed that Israel pre-empted any Syrian response.

“The Israelis clearly warned Assad that if Syria was used against them they would destroy his regime,” the diplomat stated.

Syria, which was once a major Middle East player, has seen its military and political power decline dramatically after a civil war and years of international isolation. In recent years, Syria has been reduced to a subservient ally to significantly more powerful players – Russia and Iran – nations that back the Assad regime and prevented it from collapsing during the country’s internal conflict.

Today Syria is a member of the Iranian-led ‘Axis of Resistance,’ a network of various anti-Israel and anti-U.S. regimes and terror proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas.

On Oct. 7, Hamas invaded southern Israel and massacred over 1,200 Israeli civilians, including women, children and the elderly. The following day, on Oct. 8, Iran’s most powerful terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, launched missiles toward the northern Israel border, prompting the mass evacuation of tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes.

Even before Oct.7, Syria had become a major battleground between the Iranian regime and Israel. Tehran has been determined to use Syria in its overall strategy to encircle Israel with various military threats, creating a continuous zone of hostility and tensions – a "ring of fire" – along Israel’s borders.

Jerusalem has been equally determined to prevent this development. In recent years, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has launched numerous aerial attacks on Iran and Iranian-affiliated military targets in Syria and beyond.

The weak Syrian regime has tried to balance its pro-Iranian political orientation by keeping a low profile in order to avoid a punitive Israeli military response.

This Syrian balancing act was significantly tested on April 1, when General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top Iranian Quds Force commander, and several senior Iranian military officials, were eliminated in an aerial strike on a building close to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus.

The Iranian regime quickly blamed Israel and vowed “revenge,” although the Iranian general had already been actively participating in the ongoing multi-front war against Israel. Zahedi was reportedly killed while holding a meeting with senior representatives of Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

Despite Damascus becoming the temporary focal point of Iranian-Israeli tensions, the Syrian regime continued to keep a low profile.

Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, believes other regional players influenced the Assad regime to stay clear of the current war.

“Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have urged (Assad) to stay away from the conflict,” Tabler assessed. “Assad hopes the Arabs and the West will compensate him for his restraint, and the Russians are pushing him towards this path.”

The UAE and Russia have diplomatic relations with both Iran and Israel. While the UAE may also feel threatened by the Iranian regime, it continues to seek a diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict.

Russia has a growing military alliance with Iran and received numerous Iranian drones that it has deployed in its war against Ukraine. However, Russia is also interested in having stability in order to protect its naval base in Syria and other military assets in the Middle East region.

Finally, Syria has a turbulent history with Hamas leaders. While both Syria and Hamas oppose Israel’s existence, relations deteriorated dramatically after Hamas sided with anti-Assad forces during the Syrian Civil War. In 2022, the Assad regime and Hamas eventually reconciled after years of strained relations.