IDF has destroyed 50% of Hezbollah’s missiles, say new intelligence assessments — but serious threat remains

WASHINGTON, DC — Israel’s aggressive bombardment of Hezbollah’s missile launchers and rocket and missile storage centers, along with the IDF’s limited but highly focused ground incursions into southern Lebanon, have proven astonishingly effective. 

Israeli defense officials said earlier this week that the Israeli Air Force has attacked some 2,500 Hezbollah targets and that “tens of thousands of rockets were destroyed” in those strikes.

In addition, Israel has shot down nearly all of the 10,000 rockets and missiles that Hezbollah has fired at the Jewish state since the beginning of the war.

All told, new assessments prepared by both U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials indicate that upwards of 50% of Hezbollah’s missiles have been destroyed by the IDF so far. 

When Hebrew language news outlets first reported such assessments in late September, the reports were discounted by the IDF as “likely exaggerated.”

REPORTS ARE INCREASINGLY CREDIBLE

However, another two weeks have passed, and as the IDF has continued striking aggressively, the assessments are becoming more credible.

On October 1, the New York Times reported that “Israel’s recent airstrikes in Lebanon destroyed about half of the missiles and rockets that Hezbollah had accumulated over more than three decades, dealing a blow to the militia’s capabilities, according to senior Israeli and American officials.”

Dr. Matthew Levitt – a former FBI counterterrorism official, Hezbollah expert, and a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy – says the assessments now appear accurate. 

“American and Israeli officials assess that Israel has destroyed about half of Hezbollah’s stockpile of rockets and missiles in recent weeks,” Levitt wrote in an article published in Prospect magazine on October 2.

However, the threat is far from contained.

Levitt was quick to note that Hezbollah “still maintains an arsenal of surveillance and attack drones and some 60,000 to 100,000 rockets and missiles,” which can be fired deep into Israel.

WILL HEZBOLLAH ACTIVATE SLEEPER TERROR CELLS?

Levitt also worries that Hezbollah will activate sleeper terrorist cells in the U.S. and around the world to murder American and Israeli citizens.

“Having off-the-shelf pre-operational planning at the ready, US intelligence officials assess, is ‘a critical component of [Hezbollah’s] terrorism playbook,’” Levitt noted.

“Ali Kourani, a Hezbollah operative who was arrested in New York in 2017, and ultimately convicted on terrorism charges, described himself as ‘a member of [Unit] 910, also known as Islamic Jihad or the black ops of Hezbollah,’” wrote Levitt.

“Asked by FBI agents under what circumstances he envisioned being ordered to carry out an attack in the US, Kourani outlined two scenarios: the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah or a war between Israel and Iran. In other words, a situation just like the one we are experiencing.”

HEZBOLLAH IS SEVERELY WOUNDED BUT NOT DEAD

Levitt continued: “Hezbollah is not dead, but it is not likely to ever be the same organization it was just a couple of weeks ago. Younger fighters will be promoted, but it will take time for them to accumulate the experience their predecessors possessed. Someone will succeed Nasrallah, but he will almost certainly pale in comparison with the charisma and skill of the deceased leader. The tunnels and other infrastructure Hezbollah built over many years, and at tremendous cost, will not be easily replaced.”

“But the true measure of whether the group will be able to reconstitute itself, even over many years, is whether Iran can restock Hezbollah’s sophisticated arsenal,” he added.

“Tehran’s network of proxy groups—from Hezbollah to Hamas to the Houthis – is only as dangerous as it is today because of Iran’s provision of weapons and money. Whatever Hezbollah does next, western governments must prioritize cutting off Tehran’s ability to arm and fund its proxies.”