Waiting for war

I got an email last week from a US-based journalist asking me when the war starts, can he call me for a live interview. I said yes, and gave him my home landline for which we have purchased an old analog phone in case our power and cellular service are knocked out for an extended period. Israelis are taking precautions for the worst while trying to go about our lives. The new/old phone is just one example. It’s not new and its not the only example.

As tension mounts in Israel, waiting for an inevitable attack by Iran, or the Iranian Islamic terrorists proxy Hezbollah, or others in Yemen, or Iraq, the following statement could have been made by any of their terrorist leaders:

“The circumstances through which we are now passing are difficult because we are not only confronting Israel but also those who created Israel and who are behind Israel. We are confronting Israel and the West as well -the West, which created Israel and which despised us Arabs and which ignored us before and since 1948. They had no regard whatsoever for our feelings, our hopes in life, or our rights.”

While these words sound like they are pulled out of the headlines of this week’s news, these comments were made by Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, in May 1967. Fifty seven years ago. The words could be the same today. In many ways, the circumstances are the same as well: Israel waiting perilously for an imminent attack.

In 1967, Israel’s enemies were allied as “the United Arab Republic.” Today they call themselves the “Axis of Resistance,” under the Iranian Islamic regime, but really are the Axis of Evil.

For weeks leading up to the 1967 Six-Day War, Israelis waited in fear for what was coming and what could have been a devastating attack, even a knock-out punch for the 19-year-old country. Car headlights were painted black, blackout curtains were hung, and even public parks were dug up and prepared as cemeteries for tens of thousands of projected casualties.

The reality is it’s very tense here: waiting for something we all believe to be imminent, not knowing when and how bad that will be, or what our response will be. And with it, the public debate about what the response ought to be. As we go about our lives, there’s an awareness that at any moment everything can change; all the plans, vacations, and even going shopping can be canceled.

It must have been similar leading up to the Six-Day War except then we could have been wiped out, not just hurt badly, and then we had the will to act preemptively, which made the war’s victory so decisive. A recent poll shows that half of Israelis support a preemptive strike, against Iran, Hezbollah, and anyone who threatens us.

An "Axis of Evil" attack could see 500 people killed in Israel daily for the first weeks of the war. That will be devastating indeed. Unimaginable carnage. Calls for a preemptive strike are legitimate. But the support of the US and others (including the Arab states, which is remarkable and important), also ties our hands. Rather than proactively and boldly attacking our enemies where we can limit their abilities to hurt us the most, the coalition of western and Arab states force Israel to behave defensively rather than taking on the Iranian Islamic regime and its proxies to stop them. This means that we will be forced to keep kicking the can down the road, rather than landing a knock-out punch to them that will keep us safe. And “us” is all of us, Israel, the West, and the moderate Sunni Arab states as well, all enemies of the Iranian Islamic regime.

I appreciate the US and others' help, but sadly part of me believes that as much as they may want to help protect us, there’s a lack of understanding that we need to go on the offensive to crush the enemies, otherwise we'll be back in this situation again and again, maybe with a nuclear Iran. And part of me believes that no little amount of the support we are seeing is because the WORST situation for the US and others is a regional escalation (and high gas prices going into an election). This was amplified with US officials warning Israel not to “push it” in a strike against Iran and its proxies, presumably including no preemptive attack.

Other than not defeating Iran and its proxies decisively as in 1967, which will keep the threat against Israel alive and imminent, signaling a policy to avoid escalation encourages and emboldens the other side to do so with impunity.

Israel is in the cross-hairs again and the players are different, but many others are at risk as well. In 1967, Egypt blocked the Red Sea as an act of war against Israel. Today, the Iranian backed Houthis are blocking international shipping to the Red Sea and Egypt’s Suez Canal, also an act of war and causing Egypt major financial losses.

This is just the latest of Egypt and the Iranian Islamic regime being at odds. Iran was responsible for the 1981 assassination of President Sadat, supporting the outlawed Moslem Brotherhood, and Hamas, which also threatens Egyptian stability domestically.

The stress of waiting is part of Iran’s goal, and they have excelled at it. While Israel (along with the US and others) can truly knock out the Iranian Islamic regime, and we ought to, recently a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Commission, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, was quoted as affirming this. Ardestani bragged that Israel "feels every night that it is in limbo, and keeping Israel in limbo is part of the revenge operation."

Largely because of the golden handcuffs of the US and other countries support, Israel’s policy has been strategic precision strikes against terrorist leaders, rather than striking preemptively. Unfortunately, while a strong defense is critical, it cannot preclude an equally strong offense.

Last month, Israeli planes attacked Yemen’s port, Al-Hudaydah following a Houthi drone attack on central Tel Aviv that killed one. This attack was a necessary and measured reprisal, also signaling Iran that Israel has the capability to attack in a precise way, some 1100 miles away, coincidentally the range of Tehran and much of the Islamic regimes nuclear and military facilities.

After Israel’s counter strike, some Israelis said that the Israeli military should have carried out a similarly forceful response against Hezbollah at the beginning of the conflict. Many are discussing what crippling attacks on Iranian targets would be such as its oil refineries, military and economic infrastructure, and ports along with the Ayatollahs and IRGC leaders themselves.

Calls for preemptive strikes consider attacking enemies based on their threats and capabilities, not after the fact based on the outcome of the enemies’ attacks.

With some 100,000 Israeli citizens still displaced from their homes because of threats and actual damage to their communities, and most Israelis living under the cloud of waiting for the war to escalate, Israel needs to act boldly, as it did in 1967, and give its enemies something to worry about rather than allowing our waiting to be a successful front in their psychological warfare.