The fall of Assad – Good or bad for Israel?

Although he was supposed to remain in power until 2028, the dictatorial rule of Bashar al-Assad has come to an abrupt end after 24 years, and the big question on everyone’s mind is – will this be good or bad for Israel?

Despite having studied in London to pursue a promising future in the field of ophthalmology, the moment that Bashar inherited the dynasty from his father, Hafez al-Assad, at the young age of 34, he became a chip off the old block “continuing his father’s authoritarian methods and attempt to repress the uprising against his rule, including the use of brutal tactics such as chemical weapons.”

It didn’t take long for the Syrian people to realize that despite his Western influence, the type of freedom, for which they hoped, as well as the one which he promised, would not be granted. Continuing his father’s demand for a return of the Golan Heights, Assad supported both Hamas and Hezbollah, probably believing that one day they would help him to secure that coveted piece of land.

But in 2011, he got a taste of Syrian grassroots uprising, jeopardizing his rule for the first time. Cracking down on protesters, Assad temporarily quelled the fast-spreading protest movement by “imprisoning tens of thousands of dissidents while killing hundreds of thousands as he clung to power during Syria’s civil war.”

It was around 2013 that these protesters, called “rebels,” joined forces with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while Assad cozied up to Iran and Hezbollah who helped him by fighting these insurgents. Most of us remember that, in the summer of that year, Assad was suspected of having killed hundreds in Damascus, with chemical weapons, drawing much anger from the international community – but a claim which Assad denied.  Nonetheless, human rights groups accused the leader of war crimes by also employing the use of “barrel bombs” from the air on civilian targets. 

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), successors of al-Qaeda, began to strengthen their hold of Syria in 2019. By then, Asad had lost any support he may have ever had from other nations. Over the next few years, two factors, contributing to his weakness were what ultimately caused his downfall. Russian soldiers, who had fought in Syria, became embroiled in their own fight against Ukraine, while the other nail in the coffin for Assad was the loss of Iranian proxy support, following the Israel-Hamas war. As Hezbollah’s capabilities became significantly diminished, they could no longer help Syria. 

That was the window of opportunity for HTS rebels to seize the moment, once the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire took effect, all culminating in the sudden end of Assad’s regime. 

Now, it is incumbent upon Israel to properly assess the intent of these rebels, who make up a variety of factions, including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and allies, the Syrian opposition and allies, al-Qaeda supporters, ISIS and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, with HTS, being the most powerful among them all. Their only common denominator was hatred for the Assad regime, and each have different goals and agendas.

One of the biggest concerns for Israel has to be that Turkey, a country extremely hostile to the Jewish state, has been backing the rebels. Will they be required to repay President Tayyip Erdogan for his generous support, and, if so, what could that mean for Israel?

In the meantime, IDF fighters are keeping a close eye on these rebels, warning them to keep their distance, or suffer dire consequences. It almost sounds absurd but “the IDF has bolstered its forces in the Golan, and they are now assisting the UN forces in the area, to repel any attacks.” Absurd, because the UN and Israel usually find themselves at odds. But, for now, this is the most vulnerable spot geographically for Israel - one which cannot be vulnerable to attack or jeopardized in any way.

While all this is playing out, oddly enough, some of the al-Qaeda linked rebels have expressed their “love” for Israel, partially because of the vast sums of money, arms and training they were given both by Israel and the U.S. In fact, it is these same rebels who have “vowed to establish a new pro-Western regime in Syria.”

Hard to believe but, we, along with America, empowered these rebels, and given how that worked out with Hamas, a terror group who was propped up by Israel’s government and other Western nations, we should be highly suspicious of people whose ideology is built on the belief that Islam must rule all people, on the face of the earth, no one should be too confident by enamored extremist Muslims.

While “HTS is superficially distancing itself from al-Qaeda, as part of a Western-backed public relations campaign to depict itself as more ‘moderate,’ there is a fear that HTS leaders have been whitewashed as ‘diversity-friendly jihadists,’ who still maintain the same fascist ideology.” They clearly understood that it would work in their favor to ditch an image that is anathema to civilized countries. 

There is no question that it would be a tragic mistake to, yet again, rely upon extreme Islamic terrorists, who make no secret of their aspirations towards world dominance, as those who have the capacity to be a better northern neighbor than the Assad regime.  

The vast divide between Israeli culture, principles, values and ethics is worlds apart from that of Islamic rebels who, despite pledging their love for us and the West, seems to be nothing more than a strategy to win hearts and minds, while also plotting to eventually take over parts of our land. If we learned anything from the last 20 years, as we attempted to replace the Palestinian Authority with Hamas, who we mistakenly thought would be a better peace partner, we should now realize that such naïveté is costly.

Although, these rebels claim to be for the Syrian people, it’s unlikely that they will truly see the error of authoritarian regimes and dictatorships. Israel must protect itself by keeping their eyes wide open, this time, and not falling for the lies and deception of those who say that they want to work with us toward the goal of peace when, in fact, their actions belie their words.

Assad was the devil we knew, but these rebels remain the devil we don’t know. Israel must take every precaution to avoid another bitter lesson, the likes of which we may never fully recover!

Stay tuned for part 2 of "the fall of Assad."