Ahead of debate, shock NYT poll puts Trump ahead of Harris after VP’s summer surge — why?

Also, will Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran be discussed tonight?

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TEL AVIV, ISRAEL — American Vice President Kamala Harris and her team have received devastating news just days before her first, and apparently only, national debate with former President Donald J. Trump.

From the moment Joe Biden announced that he was no longer running, and building through to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Harris benefited from a massive surge of momentum.

Buoyed by glowing media coverage – and an immense sense of relief among Democrats that Biden’s age and infirmities were no longer going to be political liabilities for them – Harris shot past Trump in national polls, taking a small significant lead.

Perhaps more importantly, Harris surged ahead of Trump in critical battleground states.

VP HARRIS IS NOW IN TROUBLE

However, the dynamic has completely reversed, according to a New York Times/Sienna College poll released on Sunday.

Trump is now ahead of Harris nationally by 2 points among registered votes, 48% to 46%.

Among men, Trump leads Harris by a whopping 56% to 38%.

Among undecided voters pushed to express who they are leaning towards, the two major candidates are dead even – 21% to 21% – with 58% saying they really don’t know who they will vote for.

In most of the battleground states, Trump has pulled even with Harris, another significant change since August.

TOO EARLY FOR PANIC OR GLOATING

This headline in the New York Times on Sunday – “New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August” – hit Democratic political operatives hard.

Party leaders and fundraisers were hoping Harris’ positive roll-out as their new standard bearer would translate into lasting gains.

And remember, this wasn’t a poll by Fox News or Newsmax the Daily Wire.

This is the house organ of the Democratic Party.

When the New York Times tells Democrats their presidential candidate is in trouble – that her momentum has stalled – and that Trump has taken a small but notable lead, they pay attention.

It’s too early to say that Democrats are panicking or that Republicans can feel too cocky that Trump has regained his mojo from earlier in the summer, particularly after his knock-out debate with Biden.

But going into tonight’s debate, the dynamic change is definitely noteworthy.

KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THE DEBATE

Here’s what I’m watching for in tonight’s showdown.

1. Is Kamala Harris ready for prime time? She’s only given one major interview since her nomination and no press conferences. Can she handle the spotlight shining squarely on her? No one knows.

2. How aggressive will Trump be? Will he take the gloves off completely, or could that turn off women, Independents, and undecided voters?

3. Will critical foreign policy questions come up, including how the candidates will handle Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran if they are elected?

4. Will other important foreign policy questions come up, including how candidates will handle threats posed by Russia, China and North Korea?

I expect a large national – and global – audience tuning in tonight.

And if the rest of this campaign is any clue, I expect to be surprised.